"If I go there will be trouble
If I stay it will be double"

The Clash - Should I Stay or Should I Go

Autarky is the ability of a state to be self-sufficient. No country is an autarky nowadays.

Over the past fifty years, nations have gradually traded away their autonomy by voluntarily becoming not just interconnected, but interdependent. The underlying dream was that if we all became dependent on each other for maintaining our comfortable lives, there would be no incentive to fight. After all, in such an interconnected world, war would be a disaster for everyone.

Taiwan's de facto independence has been kept afloat by the notion that the global supply chain simply cannot not survive without Taiwan's vital semiconductor industry. Rocking the boat would disrupt the entire global economy – China's included – so everyone steps away from the edge – for now.

We just never really took the two class bullies into account: USA and China.

Their current leaders don't care too much for balance. Their idea of creating an autarky or self-sufficiency is simply taking what they need – no bothersome negotiations required, just power.  Grab a country by the hussy, so to speak.

Suddenly, the delicate balance looks precarious.

In the USA, President Whimsical can be bought for a song if its whispered sweetly into his ear.  And China has just the melody for him: a quick and brutal military invasion on Taiwan, followed by forced occupation and martial law to get microchip production back on track with minimal disruption. Conquer and divide; all that is required is that the rest of world looks away in shame and indignation and idly stands by. But with the USA on board, who cares what the rest of the world thinks? The only thing preventing this horror scenario from becoming a reality is the fickle moods of an octogenarian whose main preoccupation is relabeling maps. One day he likes China, the next day he does not.

Taiwan's hope is now that the two class bullies keep bickering and not create some kind of big bully alliance, eating us alive together with our lunch.

I'm making The Clash's: "Should I stay or should I go" the first song of my 2026 playlist. That question feels eerily relevant right now.